Exponential breakout
Marks a one-minute move that runs well ahead of the recent pace on a volume surge; on SPY it almost never fires.
ExponentialBreakout marks a bar only when three checks pass together. The close must sit beyond a band of acceleration_factor percent on either side of a weighted average of the last window closes, the bar's one-minute move must run more than 0.5 points ahead of the recent average move in its direction, and its volume must be more than vol_factor times the window's average volume. The average is a fixed-window weighted mean, not a true EMA, and the 0.5-point test is hard-coded, so no parameter can loosen it. A marker reads +1 for an upside breakout and -1 for a downside one; a bar that fails any check is left blank.
How to read it
- Markers sit on the candles: +1 for an upside breakout, -1 for a downside one.
- A marker needs all three checks on one bar. A blank chart is the normal result at default settings, not a fault.
- On SPY one-minute bars the 0.5-point move is the real limit: in September 2026 only three bars moved more than 0.5%, all down.
- Read a marker as a flag for a sudden, volume-backed move, and check the bars around it before calling it a breakout.
What it outputs
- Breakout
- Breakout direction on the bar where all checks pass: +1 upside, -1 downside. Blank when no breakout.
When it fires
Fires when one bar moves more than 0.5 points ahead of the recent pace, closes beyond the price band and trades above the volume bar. It flags a sudden move, not a confirmed reversal. Defaults gave no marker in September 2026; loosened presets gave one, -1 on a -0.70% bar at 04:00 on 14 September.
Settings
- window
- Bars in the weighted average and the volume average. Longer makes both smoother and slower; shorter makes them track recent bars. It does not change the one-minute move every breakout needs.
- acceleration_factor
- Percent the close must sit above or below the average: 1.5 means 1.5%. Lower narrows the band so more closes qualify; at 0 any close off the average counts. The slider reaches 151, far past any useful band, and negative values invert the band.
- vol_factor
- Times the window's average volume the bar must trade: 1.8 means 1.8 times average. Lower accepts smaller surges and fires more often; 1.0 means any above-average bar. Negative values switch the volume check off.
Pitfalls
- Silent by default: no bar in September 2026 fired at default settings, and the loosened presets fire on just one bar. The 0.5-point move is fixed in the code, so this indicator is rare on SPY.
- The name suggests an exponential curve, but the average is a fixed-window weighted mean and nothing here measures exponential growth.
- No upside marker fired in September 2026 because no one-minute bar rose more than 0.5%. One month is too short to judge the upside side.